Scenario Simulation

All scenarios were simulated using Geodesign Technologies' AttCom(tm) land cover change model.  The project began with 3 scenarios previously generated at statewide scale for the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC 2015).

Details of the methodology are presented in the PFLCC Conservation Scenarios report.  The basic approach is to estimate 'demand' for each land use type, and to allocate that demand relative to an assessment of market attractiveness, subject to spatial constraints.  For housing and urban development, attractiveness surfaces are based on historic development patterns, and future land use maps as well as additional policies for the constraints.  For conservation allocation, we used the University of Florida's CLIP prioritization as attractiveness.

For this project, we adjusted prior scenarios and created several new scenarios.  In terms of adjustments, we tried to stay conceptually-compatible with the PFLCC statewide scenarios, while taking into account local planning and development changes.  For example, we found that PFLCC Scenario 1 had developed almost 120,000 acres which are locally recorded as conserved. Some of this was due to recent additions to the conservation network.  A significant additional amount were areas which had been under conservation easements not recorded in parcel data or in the FNAI Managed Areas dataset.