Scenario 3: Proactive Plus 2060

Climate-aware Conservation under RCP 4.5

Overview

Scenario MPRO simulates climate-aware conservation strategy under moderate climate change. Conservation strategies are based on CLIP version 3.1. This uses a primarily private conservation strategy, with approximately 50% more resources than under baseline plan/trend. It presumes supporting "proactive" growth management policies (see below). Climate change follows the RPC 4.5 scenario of IPCC

Conservation (strategy + mechanism)

  • 10% fee simple/90% easement
  • First priority CLIP 3.1 ("P1") lands conserved first
  • Financial resources: 57,500 acres/year
  • Conservation of shoreline inundation areas

Urbanization

  • Modest densification of current development (1/3 reduction in lower-density types)
  • Infill of county priority transit-oriented development areas at recommended densities
  • Green infrastructure excluded from development, based on CLIP3.1 first priority areas
  • Expected SLR inundation areas excluded from new development

Population

  • Same as other scenarios
  • University of Florida BEBR Medium Trend Population (~2x over 50 years)

Climate Change

  • Follows IPCC RCP 4.5
  • Sea Level Rise: 0.5 meters by 2060 (US ACE moderate curve for SLR)
  • Vegetation changes as predicted by USGS Transitional Saline Wetlands project.