Scenario 1: Plan/Trend

Business as Usual Under Climate Change

This scenario simulates current policies and practices extended into the long term future - "business as usual". Like the others in the PFLCC set, It does incorporate high climate change. Thus the scenario is a test of how current practices might interact with climate change.

Ubanization details

  • Existing distribution of density (same % suburban, high density, etc. as current)
  • Current zoning/FLU followed until demand capacity reached
  • Market preference allocation

Conservation (strategy + mechanism)

  • 50% fee simple/50% easement
  • Florida Forever targets
  • Financial resources: 30,000 acres/year


  • BEBR Medium Trend Population (~2x over 50 years)

Climate Change

  • Sea Level Rise: 1 meter by 2060 (USACE curve for high SLR scenario)
  • Vegetation changes as predicted by USGS Transitional Saline Wetlands project.