Scenario 0: Conservationless Development

Statewide Plans/Trend Development under High Climate Change with No Conservation

This scenario extends current plans and development trends 50 years forward under a high climate change scenario (IPCC RCP8.5, 1m SLR@2100). It makes no adaptations to climate change beyond armoring and elevating development. This scenario contains no new conservation lands or initiatives, either public or private.

Ubanization details

  • Existing distribution of density (same % suburban, high density, etc. as current)
  • Current zoning/FLU followed until demand capacity reached
  • Market preference allocation
  • Follows statewide growth trends identical to PFLCC2014 scenario series

Conservation (strategy + mechanism)

  • No new public conservation
  • No new private conservation

Population

  • BEBR Medium Trend Population (~2x over 50 years)

Climate Change

  • Sea Level Rise: 1 meter by 2060 (USACE curve for high SLR scenario)
  • Vegetation changes as predicted by SLAMM